Managing for Biodiversity and Blue Carbon in the Face of Sea-level Rise and Barrier Island Migration
Principal Investigator:Keryn Gedan
Institution:George Washington University
Co-Principal investigator:Chris Hein, Virginia Institute of Marine Science; Sunny Jardine, University of Delaware, School of Marine Science and Policy; Jorge Lorenzo Trueba, Montclair State University, Earth and Environmental Studies
Strategic focus area:Resilient ecosystem processes and responses
Barrier islands serve as buffers between the coastal ocean and mainland agricultural lands, human population centers, and infrastructure and protect these investments from devastating storm impacts. The marshes, bays, lagoons and tidal flats behind these barriers support a high degree of biodiversity and also provide other ecosystem services including blue carbon storage. The proposed research focuses on the geologic and ecologic response of coupled barrier-backbarrier systems to relative sea-level rise and the implications for the backbarrier ecosystem services of biodiversity provision and blue carbon sequestration. Field geologic and ecologic data from barrier systems diverse in their migration rates and degree of anthropogenic stabilization and development (Parramore and Assawoman islands in Virginia; Fenwick/Assateague Island in Maryland / Delaware; Long Beach Island in New Jersey) will be used to calibrate a numerical morphodynamic model that will then be widely applicable to understanding barrier system response (in terms of migration rate and backbarrier dynamics) to variable sea-level rise rates and anthropogenic stabilization measures. Morphodynamic model outcomes will be iteratively coupled with a human-behavior (economic) model to provide insight into the best-practices for designing optimal barrier stabilization and marsh conservation and restoration programs which consider the net benefits from protecting blue carbon stocks, biodiversity, and beach width in a wide range of settings. Relative sea-level rise and management scenarios will be derived through literature reviews and consultations with four primary outreach partners (the Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission / Climate Adaptation Working Group [VA]; Assateague State Park [MD]; the Center for the Inland Bays [DE]; and the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve [NJ]), who will serve as points of contact to the broader management, conservation, and decision-making communities in these four states. This project will support the training of three PhD students and four undergraduate students. It will result in: (1) the publication of four disciplinary scientific articles and 2–3 interdisciplinary scientific articles; (2) one publically available white paper on best practices for barrier systems management for blue carbon and biodiversity based on iterative morphodynamic and human behavior model simulations which will be made available through Sea Grant and partner organizations; and (3) a series of two Coastal Change Workshops held in December 2017 to January 2018 with potential audiences of > 100 coastal managers, conservation agents, decision-makers, etc. from New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula, respectively.