R/ODR-05

Description:

Develop, calibrate, and validate a Haplosporidium nelsoni submodel, to be linked to an existing Crassostrea virginica-Perkinsus marinus host-parasite population dynamics model. Assemble and quality-assure calibration and input data from Chesapeake Bay Oyster population and disease monitoring programs. Develop spatial grid interpolations to match environmental and biological data for the Chesapeake Bay. Perform site-specific model runs for selected Virginia and Maryland sites, and for 64 Maryland Modified Fall Oyster Survey sites, the latter runs to be used for statistical tests of model performance. Apply a recently developed dual disease oyster model to high priority oyster management issues. Specifically, these issues are, The interactions of disease with large scale movements of seed oysters, Prediction of oyster mortality and recruitment from long-term climate change scenarios, Selective factors in disease resistance - (does harvesting prevent development of disease tolerance or resistance?), and effects of fishing mortality - interactions with diseases and environmental factors. Model development will continue, specifically aimed at incorporating a hydrodynamic model to allow for prediction of oyster recruitment. Continued development of GIS interfacing will allow for representation of management impacts.