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Research Publications: UM-SG-RS-2020-19
Title:
Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in MarylandYear:
2020Authors:
Li, M; Zhang, F; Barnes, S; Wang, XHSource:
Natural Hazards 103 ( 2 ) : 2561 - 2588DOI:
10.1007/s11069-020-04096-4Abstract:
Hurricane Isabel (2003) generated record flooding around Chesapeake Bay and caused extensive damage in rural Eastern Shore of Maryland and metropolitan cities like Baltimore. Regional atmosphere-ocean models are used to investigate the storm surge and coastal inundation that might be produced by a similar storm under the warmer ocean temperature and higher sea level projected for the future climate. Warming causes the storm to intensify, with the minimum sea level pressure decreasing from 955 mb during Isabel to similar to 950 mb in 2050 and similar to 940 mb in 2100. The stronger storm and higher mean sea level amplify the peak water level by similar to 0.5 m in 2050 and similar to 1.2 m in 2100. The total inundated area over Chesapeake Bay expands by 26% in 2050 and 47-62% in 2100. Over the rural Dorchester County, the inundated area shows moderate expansion in the future climate but the average inundation depth is 30% higher in 2050 and 50-70% higher in 2100. The number of houses flooded increases from 1420 during Hurricane Isabel to 1850/2190 in 2100 under the climate change scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5/8.5. The inundated area in Baltimore is 2.2 km(2) during Hurricane Isabel, expands to 5.1 km(2) in 2050, and reaches 8.1/9.1 km(2) in 2100 under RCP 4.5/8.5. The estimated flood damage to Baltimore increases from $29 million in 2003 to $98/100 million in 2050 and $150/162 million in 2100 under the median projection of RCP 4.5/8.5. These estimates are subjected to uncertainty due to different climate change scenarios and different climate model projections.Related Research Project(s) Funded by Maryland Sea Grant:
'Related Research Project(s)' link to details about research projects funded by Maryland Sea Grant that led to this publication. These details may include other impacts and accomplishments resulting from the research.
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Featured Fellow
Leone Yisrael is a cephalopod-loving scuba diver, cook, and loves to try new activities. She conducts genetic analysis and fieldwork at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center through the Coastal Disease Ecology Lab.
Featured Research Project
Developing a habitat model for mysids, an important link in Chesapeake Bay food webs
Mysids are important mesozooplankton prey for many species of fish in Chesapeake Bay and are an important link in transferring energy from lower to upper trophic levels. Mysids also serve as biological vectors for benthic-pelagic coupling due to their diel vertical migration and omnivorous prey-switching behavior, which makes mysids important regulators of food web architecture. Despite their central role in coastal food webs, surprisingly little is known about mysid ecology and dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.
